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Volendam II vs De Treffers — Tweede Divisie 2019

Volendam II
Volendam II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
De Treffers
De Treffers
10/10/2020Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 6Kras Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Volendam II35%
×Draw23%
De Treffers42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volendam II
1.59
De Treffers
1.77

De Treffers creates 11% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 100 away

creates per match

Volendam II
1.67
De Treffers
1.60

allows per match

Volendam II
1.94
De Treffers
1.51

finishing

Volendam II+0.00on par
De Treffers+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volendam II ↓

De Treffers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Volendam II or draw
58%
Volendam II or De Treffers
77%
Draw or De Treffers
65%

Winning margin

Volendam II wins by 2+
17%
De Treffers wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Volendam II 1+ goals
80%
Volendam II 2+ goals
47%
Volendam II 3+ goals
21%
De Treffers 1+ goals
83%
De Treffers 2+ goals
53%
De Treffers 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Volendam II (draw refunded)
45%
De Treffers (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volendam II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.94 · 49 matches

De Treffers away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.51 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volendam II attack 1.67 + De Treffers defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.59

De Treffers attack 1.60 + Volendam II defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Volendam II scores more
35%
level
23%
De Treffers scores more
42%

De Treffers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "De Treffers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: Volendam II 1–1 De Treffers

Volendam II and De Treffers drew 1-1 in Tweede Divisie on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Kras Stadion in Volendam.