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De Treffers vs Volendam II — Tweede Divisie 2019

De Treffers
De Treffers
CANC
16:00
Volendam II
Volendam II
4/17/2021Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 29Sportpark Zuid veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

De Treffers53%
×Draw21%
Volendam II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

De Treffers
2.19
Volendam II
1.49

De Treffers creates 47% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 49 away

creates per match

De Treffers
1.82
Volendam II
1.59

allows per match

De Treffers
1.39
Volendam II
2.57

finishing

De Treffers+0.00on par
Volendam II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

De Treffers ↓

Volendam II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

De Treffers or draw
74%
De Treffers or Volendam II
79%
Draw or Volendam II
47%

Winning margin

De Treffers wins by 2+
32%
Volendam II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

De Treffers 1+ goals
89%
De Treffers 2+ goals
64%
De Treffers 3+ goals
37%
Volendam II 1+ goals
77%
Volendam II 2+ goals
44%
Volendam II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

De Treffers (draw refunded)
67%
Volendam II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

De Treffers at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.39 · 99 matches

Volendam II away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

De Treffers attack 1.82 + Volendam II defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.19

Volendam II attack 1.59 + De Treffers defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

De Treffers scores more
53%
level
21%
Volendam II scores more
26%

De Treffers at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "De Treffers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

De Treffers face Volendam II (Tweede Divisie)

Tweede Divisie returns with De Treffers hosting Volendam II. Match starts April 17, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

De Treffers host Volendam II at Sportpark Zuid veld 1.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.