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Volders vs Zams — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Volders
Volders
FT
1 – 0
Zams
Zams
8/7/2021Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 3Sportplatz Volders

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Volders64%
×Draw18%
Zams18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volders
2.50
Zams
1.25

Volders creates 100% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 29 away

creates per match

Volders
1.69
Zams
0.86

allows per match

Volders
1.64
Zams
3.31

finishing

Volders+0.00on par
Zams+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volders ↓

Zams →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Volders or draw
82%
Volders or Zams
82%
Draw or Zams
36%

Winning margin

Volders wins by 2+
43%
Zams wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Volders 1+ goals
92%
Volders 2+ goals
71%
Volders 3+ goals
45%
Zams 1+ goals
71%
Zams 2+ goals
36%
Zams 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Volders (draw refunded)
78%
Zams (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volders at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.64 · 85 matches

Zams away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volders attack 1.69 + Zams defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.50

Zams attack 0.86 + Volders defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Volders scores more
64%
level
18%
Zams scores more
18%

Volders at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Volders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Volders vs Zams

Volders beat Zams 1-0 in Landesliga - Tirol on August 7, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz Volders in Volders.