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Volders vs SV Innsbruck — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Volders
Volders
FT
1 – 3
SV Innsbruck
SV Innsbruck
10/19/2019Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 12Sportplatz Volders

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Volders44%
×Draw22%
SV Innsbruck34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volders
1.90
SV Innsbruck
1.67

Volders creates 14% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 27 away

creates per match

Volders
1.69
SV Innsbruck
1.70

allows per match

Volders
1.64
SV Innsbruck
2.11

finishing

Volders+0.00on par
SV Innsbruck+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volders ↓

SV Innsbruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Volders or draw
66%
Volders or SV Innsbruck
78%
Draw or SV Innsbruck
56%

Winning margin

Volders wins by 2+
24%
SV Innsbruck wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Volders 1+ goals
85%
Volders 2+ goals
56%
Volders 3+ goals
29%
SV Innsbruck 1+ goals
81%
SV Innsbruck 2+ goals
50%
SV Innsbruck 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Volders (draw refunded)
56%
SV Innsbruck (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volders at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.64 · 85 matches

SV Innsbruck away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.11 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volders attack 1.69 + SV Innsbruck defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.90

SV Innsbruck attack 1.70 + Volders defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Volders scores more
44%
level
22%
SV Innsbruck scores more
34%

Volders at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Volders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Volders vs SV Innsbruck

SV Innsbruck beat Volders 3-1 in Landesliga - Tirol on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz Volders in Volders.