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Volders vs Münster — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Volders
Volders
FT
0 – 1
Münster
Münster
5/28/2022Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 27Sportplatz Volders

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Volders51%
×Draw22%
Münster27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volders
1.99
Münster
1.40

Volders creates 42% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 30 away

creates per match

Volders
1.69
Münster
1.17

allows per match

Volders
1.64
Münster
2.30

finishing

Volders+0.00on par
Münster+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volders ↓

Münster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Volders or draw
73%
Volders or Münster
78%
Draw or Münster
49%

Winning margin

Volders wins by 2+
29%
Münster wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Volders 1+ goals
86%
Volders 2+ goals
59%
Volders 3+ goals
32%
Münster 1+ goals
75%
Münster 2+ goals
41%
Münster 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Volders (draw refunded)
65%
Münster (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volders at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.64 · 85 matches

Münster away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.30 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volders attack 1.69 + Münster defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.99

Münster attack 1.17 + Volders defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Volders scores more
51%
level
22%
Münster scores more
27%

Volders at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Volders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Tirol: Volders 0–1 Münster

Münster beat Volders 1-0 in Landesliga - Tirol on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Volders in Volders.