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Volda vs Surnadal — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Volda
Volda
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Surnadal
Surnadal
9/13/20253. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 20Sparebank 1 Bana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Volda74%
×Draw14%
Surnadal12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volda
3.21
Surnadal
1.29

Volda creates 149% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 13 away

creates per match

Volda
2.58
Surnadal
0.69

allows per match

Volda
1.89
Surnadal
3.85

finishing

Volda+0.00on par
Surnadal+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volda ↓

Surnadal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Volda or draw
88%
Volda or Surnadal
86%
Draw or Surnadal
26%

Winning margin

Volda wins by 2+
55%
Surnadal wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Volda 1+ goals
96%
Volda 2+ goals
82%
Volda 3+ goals
60%
Surnadal 1+ goals
72%
Surnadal 2+ goals
37%
Surnadal 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Volda (draw refunded)
86%
Surnadal (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volda at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.89 · 45 matches

Surnadal away — creates 0.69, concedes 3.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volda attack 2.58 + Surnadal defence 3.85 → ÷2 → 3.21

Surnadal attack 0.69 + Volda defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Volda scores more
74%
level
14%
Surnadal scores more
12%

Volda at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Volda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Volda vs Surnadal

Volda beat Surnadal 5-0 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Sparebank 1 Bana in Volda.