Volda 5–0 Kristiansund II: Result & Stats

Volda

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Kristiansund II

6/2/2025

3. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 8Sparebank 1 Bana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Volda60%

×Draw19%

Kristiansund II21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VoldaExpected goals in this matchKristiansund II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

1.44

Volda

2.52

Kristiansund II

1.44

Volda creates 75% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 13 away

2.58

creates per match

1.00

1.89

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Volda

2.58

Kristiansund II

1.00

allows per match

Volda

1.89

Kristiansund II

2.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volda+0.00on par

Kristiansund II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volda ↓

Kristiansund II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Volda or draw

79%

Volda or Kristiansund II

81%

Draw or Kristiansund II

40%

Winning margin

Volda wins by 2+

39%

Kristiansund II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Volda 1+ goals

92%

Volda 2+ goals

71%

Volda 3+ goals

45%

Kristiansund II 1+ goals

76%

Kristiansund II 2+ goals

42%

Kristiansund II 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Volda (draw refunded)

74%

Kristiansund II (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volda at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.89 · 45 matches

Kristiansund II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volda attack 2.58 + Kristiansund II defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.52

Kristiansund II attack 1.00 + Volda defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Volda scores more

60%

level

19%

Kristiansund II scores more

21%

Volda at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Volda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff