Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Volda vs Kolstad — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Volda
Volda
CANC
15:00
Kolstad
Kolstad
10/31/20203. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Girone 5 - 13Volda kunstgras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Volda65%
×Draw16%
Kolstad19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volda
3.16
Kolstad
1.70

Volda creates 86% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 33 away

creates per match

Volda
2.83
Kolstad
1.73

allows per match

Volda
1.67
Kolstad
3.48

finishing

Volda+0.00on par
Kolstad+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volda ↓

Kolstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Volda or draw
81%
Volda or Kolstad
84%
Draw or Kolstad
35%

Winning margin

Volda wins by 2+
46%
Kolstad wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Volda 1+ goals
96%
Volda 2+ goals
82%
Volda 3+ goals
59%
Kolstad 1+ goals
82%
Kolstad 2+ goals
51%
Kolstad 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Volda (draw refunded)
78%
Kolstad (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volda at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Kolstad away — creates 1.73, concedes 3.48 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volda attack 2.83 + Kolstad defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 3.16

Kolstad attack 1.73 + Volda defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Volda scores more
65%
level
16%
Kolstad scores more
19%

Volda at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Volda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Volda host Kolstad

October 31, 2020: Volda take on Kolstad in 3. Division - Girone 5. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Volda host Kolstad at Volda kunstgras.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.