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Volda vs HamKam II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Volda
Volda
FT
3 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
HamKam II
HamKam II
9/9/20233. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 19Sparebank 1 Bana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Volda55%
×Draw19%
HamKam II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volda
2.56
HamKam II
1.75

Volda creates 46% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 13 away

creates per match

Volda
2.58
HamKam II
1.62

allows per match

Volda
1.89
HamKam II
2.54

finishing

Volda+0.00on par
HamKam II+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volda ↓

HamKam II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Volda or draw
74%
Volda or HamKam II
81%
Draw or HamKam II
45%

Winning margin

Volda wins by 2+
35%
HamKam II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Volda 1+ goals
92%
Volda 2+ goals
72%
Volda 3+ goals
46%
HamKam II 1+ goals
83%
HamKam II 2+ goals
52%
HamKam II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Volda (draw refunded)
68%
HamKam II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volda at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.89 · 45 matches

HamKam II away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volda attack 2.58 + HamKam II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.56

HamKam II attack 1.62 + Volda defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Volda scores more
55%
level
19%
HamKam II scores more
26%

Volda at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Volda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Volda vs HamKam II

HamKam II beat Volda 4-3 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Sparebank 1 Bana in Volda.