Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Volda vs Hødd II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Volda
Volda
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hødd II
Hødd II
R. Dahlberg 81', 79'
J. Skorge 77'
T. Evebo 75', 24'
O. Bjordal 64'
6/27/20223. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 12Sparebank 1 Bana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Volda57%
×Draw18%
Hødd II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volda
2.73
Hødd II
1.81

Volda creates 51% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 26 away

creates per match

Volda
2.58
Hødd II
1.73

allows per match

Volda
1.89
Hødd II
2.88

finishing

Volda+0.00on par
Hødd II+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volda ↓

Hødd II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Volda or draw
75%
Volda or Hødd II
82%
Draw or Hødd II
43%

Winning margin

Volda wins by 2+
37%
Hødd II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Volda 1+ goals
93%
Volda 2+ goals
75%
Volda 3+ goals
50%
Hødd II 1+ goals
84%
Hødd II 2+ goals
54%
Hødd II 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Volda (draw refunded)
69%
Hødd II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volda at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.89 · 45 matches

Hødd II away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volda attack 2.58 + Hødd II defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.73

Hødd II attack 1.73 + Volda defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Volda scores more
57%
level
18%
Hødd II scores more
25%

Volda at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Volda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
T. Evebo
64'
O. Bjordal
75'
T. Evebo
77'
J. Skorge
79'
R. Dahlberg
81'
R. Dahlberg

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Volda 5–1 Hødd II

Volda beat Hødd II 5-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on June 27, 2022.

Goals: T. Evebo (24', 75'), O. Bjordal (64'), J. Skorge (77'), R. Dahlberg (79', 81').

The match was played at Sparebank 1 Bana in Volda.