Volda 5–0 Aalesund II: Result & Stats

Volda

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Aalesund II

8/11/2025

3. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 15Sparebank 1 Bana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Volda52%

×Draw20%

Aalesund II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VoldaExpected goals in this matchAalesund II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.64

Volda

2.27

Aalesund II

1.64

Volda creates 38% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 33 away

2.58

creates per match

1.39

1.89

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Volda

2.58

Aalesund II

1.39

allows per match

Volda

1.89

Aalesund II

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volda+0.00on par

Aalesund II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volda ↓

Aalesund II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Volda or draw

72%

Volda or Aalesund II

80%

Draw or Aalesund II

48%

Winning margin

Volda wins by 2+

31%

Aalesund II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Volda 1+ goals

90%

Volda 2+ goals

66%

Volda 3+ goals

39%

Aalesund II 1+ goals

81%

Aalesund II 2+ goals

49%

Aalesund II 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Volda (draw refunded)

65%

Aalesund II (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volda at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.89 · 45 matches

Aalesund II away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.97 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volda attack 2.58 + Aalesund II defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.27

Aalesund II attack 1.39 + Volda defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Volda scores more

52%

level

20%

Aalesund II scores more

28%

Volda at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Volda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff