Vojvodina 0–3 Novi Pazar: Result & Stats

Vojvodina

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Novi Pazar

2/21/2026

Super Liga · Round 24Karadorde Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Vojvodina50%

×Draw25%

Novi Pazar25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VojvodinaExpected goals in this matchNovi Pazar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.04

Vojvodina

1.60

Novi Pazar

1.04

Vojvodina creates 54% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 114 away

1.57

creates per match

1.07

1.02

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Vojvodina

1.57

Novi Pazar

1.07

allows per match

Vojvodina

1.02

Novi Pazar

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vojvodina+0.00on par

Novi Pazar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vojvodina ↓

Novi Pazar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Vojvodina or draw

75%

Vojvodina or Novi Pazar

75%

Draw or Novi Pazar

50%

Winning margin

Vojvodina wins by 2+

26%

Novi Pazar wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Vojvodina 1+ goals

80%

Vojvodina 2+ goals

47%

Vojvodina 3+ goals

22%

Novi Pazar 1+ goals

65%

Novi Pazar 2+ goals

28%

Novi Pazar 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Vojvodina (draw refunded)

67%

Novi Pazar (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vojvodina at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.02 · 144 matches

Novi Pazar away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.63 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vojvodina attack 1.57 + Novi Pazar defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.60

Novi Pazar attack 1.07 + Vojvodina defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vojvodina scores more

50%

level

25%

Novi Pazar scores more

25%

Vojvodina at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vojvodina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff