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Vojvodina vs Mladost Lucani — Super Liga 2026

Vojvodina
Vojvodina
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Mladost Lucani
Mladost Lucani
4/13/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Championship Round - 1Stadion Karađorđe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Vojvodina52%
×Draw25%
Mladost Lucani23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vojvodina
1.57
Mladost Lucani
0.94

Vojvodina creates 67% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 147 away

creates per match

Vojvodina
1.57
Mladost Lucani
0.86

allows per match

Vojvodina
1.02
Mladost Lucani
1.57

finishing

Vojvodina+0.00on par
Mladost Lucani+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vojvodina ↓

Mladost Lucani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vojvodina or draw
77%
Vojvodina or Mladost Lucani
75%
Draw or Mladost Lucani
48%

Winning margin

Vojvodina wins by 2+
27%
Mladost Lucani wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vojvodina 1+ goals
79%
Vojvodina 2+ goals
46%
Vojvodina 3+ goals
21%
Mladost Lucani 1+ goals
61%
Mladost Lucani 2+ goals
24%
Mladost Lucani 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vojvodina (draw refunded)
70%
Mladost Lucani (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vojvodina at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.02 · 144 matches

Mladost Lucani away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vojvodina attack 1.57 + Mladost Lucani defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.57

Mladost Lucani attack 0.86 + Vojvodina defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vojvodina scores more
52%
level
25%
Mladost Lucani scores more
23%

Vojvodina at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vojvodina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vojvodina vs Mladost Lucani

Vojvodina beat Mladost Lucani 3-1 in Super Liga on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Karađorđe in Novi Sad.