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Vojvodina vs Javor — Super Liga 2026

Vojvodina
Vojvodina
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Javor
Javor
9/23/2023Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 8Stadion Karađorđe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Vojvodina54%
×Draw24%
Javor22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vojvodina
1.69
Javor
0.99

Vojvodina creates 71% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 90 away

creates per match

Vojvodina
1.57
Javor
0.96

allows per match

Vojvodina
1.02
Javor
1.80

finishing

Vojvodina+0.00on par
Javor+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vojvodina ↓

Javor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Vojvodina or draw
78%
Vojvodina or Javor
76%
Draw or Javor
46%

Winning margin

Vojvodina wins by 2+
29%
Javor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vojvodina 1+ goals
82%
Vojvodina 2+ goals
50%
Vojvodina 3+ goals
24%
Javor 1+ goals
63%
Javor 2+ goals
26%
Javor 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vojvodina (draw refunded)
71%
Javor (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vojvodina at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.02 · 144 matches

Javor away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.80 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vojvodina attack 1.57 + Javor defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.69

Javor attack 0.96 + Vojvodina defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vojvodina scores more
54%
level
24%
Javor scores more
22%

Vojvodina at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vojvodina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Vojvodina 2–1 Javor

Vojvodina beat Javor 2-1 in Super Liga on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Karađorđe in Novi Sad.