Vojvodina 2–0 Dinamo Vranje: Result & Stats

Vojvodina

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Dinamo Vranje

10/27/2018

Super Liga · Round 13Stadion Karađorđe (Novi Sad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vojvodina65%

×Draw22%

Dinamo Vranje13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VojvodinaExpected goals in this matchDinamo Vranje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

0.70

Vojvodina

1.87

Dinamo Vranje

0.70

Vojvodina creates 167% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 19 away

1.57

creates per match

0.37

1.02

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Vojvodina

1.57

Dinamo Vranje

0.37

allows per match

Vojvodina

1.02

Dinamo Vranje

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vojvodina+0.00on par

Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vojvodina ↓

Dinamo Vranje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Vojvodina or draw

87%

Vojvodina or Dinamo Vranje

78%

Draw or Dinamo Vranje

35%

Winning margin

Vojvodina wins by 2+

39%

Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Vojvodina 1+ goals

85%

Vojvodina 2+ goals

56%

Vojvodina 3+ goals

29%

Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals

50%

Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals

16%

Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Vojvodina (draw refunded)

83%

Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vojvodina at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.02 · 144 matches

Dinamo Vranje away — creates 0.37, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vojvodina attack 1.57 + Dinamo Vranje defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.87

Dinamo Vranje attack 0.37 + Vojvodina defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Vojvodina scores more

65%

level

22%

Dinamo Vranje scores more

13%

Vojvodina at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Vojvodina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff