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Vojvodina vs Cukaricki — Super Liga 2026

Vojvodina
Vojvodina
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cukaricki
Cukaricki
9/13/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 8Stadion Karađorđe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Vojvodina44%
×Draw26%
Cukaricki30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vojvodina
1.46
Cukaricki
1.16

Vojvodina creates 26% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

creates per match

Vojvodina
1.57
Cukaricki
1.29

allows per match

Vojvodina
1.02
Cukaricki
1.35

finishing

Vojvodina+0.00on par
Cukaricki+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vojvodina ↓

Cukaricki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vojvodina or draw
70%
Vojvodina or Cukaricki
74%
Draw or Cukaricki
56%

Winning margin

Vojvodina wins by 2+
21%
Cukaricki wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vojvodina 1+ goals
77%
Vojvodina 2+ goals
43%
Vojvodina 3+ goals
18%
Cukaricki 1+ goals
69%
Cukaricki 2+ goals
32%
Cukaricki 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vojvodina (draw refunded)
59%
Cukaricki (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vojvodina at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.02 · 144 matches

Cukaricki away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.35 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vojvodina attack 1.57 + Cukaricki defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.46

Cukaricki attack 1.29 + Vojvodina defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vojvodina scores more
44%
level
26%
Cukaricki scores more
30%

Vojvodina at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vojvodina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vojvodina vs Cukaricki

Vojvodina beat Cukaricki 3-1 in Super Liga on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Karađorđe in Novi Sad.