King Faisal 1–1 Elmina Sharks: Result & Stats

King Faisal

FT

1 – 1

Elmina Sharks

1/25/2020

Premier League · 2020 - 6Baba Yara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

King Faisal54%

×Draw27%

Elmina Sharks19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

King FaisalExpected goals in this matchElmina Sharks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.76

King Faisal

1.47

Elmina Sharks

0.76

King Faisal creates 93% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 41 away

1.18

creates per match

0.59

0.92

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

King Faisal

1.18

Elmina Sharks

0.59

allows per match

King Faisal

0.92

Elmina Sharks

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

King Faisal+0.00on par

Elmina Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

King Faisal ↓

Elmina Sharks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

King Faisal or draw

81%

King Faisal or Elmina Sharks

73%

Draw or Elmina Sharks

46%

Winning margin

King Faisal wins by 2+

28%

Elmina Sharks wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

King Faisal 1+ goals

77%

King Faisal 2+ goals

43%

King Faisal 3+ goals

18%

Elmina Sharks 1+ goals

53%

Elmina Sharks 2+ goals

18%

Elmina Sharks 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

King Faisal (draw refunded)

74%

Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

King Faisal at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.92 · 60 matches

Elmina Sharks away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.76 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

King Faisal attack 1.18 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.47

Elmina Sharks attack 0.59 + King Faisal defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

King Faisal scores more

54%

level

27%

Elmina Sharks scores more

19%

King Faisal at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "King Faisal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.