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King Faisal vs Elmina Sharks — Division One League 2025

King Faisal
King Faisal
FT
0 – 1
Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
5/3/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

King Faisal50%
×Draw28%
Elmina Sharks22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

King Faisal
1.33
Elmina Sharks
0.77

King Faisal creates 73% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

King Faisal
1.40
Elmina Sharks
0.67

allows per match

King Faisal
0.87
Elmina Sharks
1.27

finishing

King Faisal+0.00on par
Elmina Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

King Faisal ↓

Elmina Sharks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

King Faisal or draw
78%
King Faisal or Elmina Sharks
72%
Draw or Elmina Sharks
50%

Winning margin

King Faisal wins by 2+
24%
Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

King Faisal 1+ goals
74%
King Faisal 2+ goals
38%
King Faisal 3+ goals
15%
Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
54%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
18%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

King Faisal (draw refunded)
70%
Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

King Faisal at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Elmina Sharks away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

King Faisal attack 1.40 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.33

Elmina Sharks attack 0.67 + King Faisal defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

King Faisal scores more
50%
level
28%
Elmina Sharks scores more
22%

King Faisal at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "King Faisal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: King Faisal 0–1 Elmina Sharks

Elmina Sharks beat King Faisal 1-0 in Division One League on May 3, 2026.