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Vojvodina 1928 vs Tisa Adorjan — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Vojvodina 1928
Vojvodina 1928
FT
0 – 2
Tisa Adorjan
Tisa Adorjan
9/13/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 6Stadion Vojvodina 1928

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Vojvodina 192829%
×Draw25%
Tisa Adorjan46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vojvodina 1928
1.23
Tisa Adorjan
1.61

Tisa Adorjan creates 31% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 64 away

creates per match

Vojvodina 1928
0.81
Tisa Adorjan
1.58

allows per match

Vojvodina 1928
1.64
Tisa Adorjan
1.64

finishing

Vojvodina 1928+0.00on par
Tisa Adorjan+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vojvodina 1928 ↓

Tisa Adorjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Vojvodina 1928 or draw
54%
Vojvodina 1928 or Tisa Adorjan
75%
Draw or Tisa Adorjan
71%

Winning margin

Vojvodina 1928 wins by 2+
12%
Tisa Adorjan wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Vojvodina 1928 1+ goals
71%
Vojvodina 1928 2+ goals
35%
Vojvodina 1928 3+ goals
13%
Tisa Adorjan 1+ goals
80%
Tisa Adorjan 2+ goals
48%
Tisa Adorjan 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Vojvodina 1928 (draw refunded)
39%
Tisa Adorjan (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vojvodina 1928 at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

Tisa Adorjan away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.64 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vojvodina 1928 attack 0.81 + Tisa Adorjan defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.23

Tisa Adorjan attack 1.58 + Vojvodina 1928 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vojvodina 1928 scores more
29%
level
25%
Tisa Adorjan scores more
46%

Tisa Adorjan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tisa Adorjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vojvodina 1928 vs Tisa Adorjan

Tisa Adorjan beat Vojvodina 1928 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 13, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Vojvodina 1928 in Perlez.