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Vojvodina 1928 vs Sloga Čonoplja — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Vojvodina 1928
Vojvodina 1928
FT
1 – 1
Sloga Čonoplja
Sloga Čonoplja
8/23/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 2Stadion Vojvodina 1928

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Vojvodina 192840%
×Draw25%
Sloga Čonoplja35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vojvodina 1928
1.45
Sloga Čonoplja
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 49 away

creates per match

Vojvodina 1928
0.81
Sloga Čonoplja
1.04

allows per match

Vojvodina 1928
1.64
Sloga Čonoplja
2.08

finishing

Vojvodina 1928+0.00on par
Sloga Čonoplja+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vojvodina 1928 ↓

Sloga Čonoplja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Vojvodina 1928 or draw
65%
Vojvodina 1928 or Sloga Čonoplja
75%
Draw or Sloga Čonoplja
60%

Winning margin

Vojvodina 1928 wins by 2+
19%
Sloga Čonoplja wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Vojvodina 1928 1+ goals
77%
Vojvodina 1928 2+ goals
42%
Vojvodina 1928 3+ goals
18%
Sloga Čonoplja 1+ goals
74%
Sloga Čonoplja 2+ goals
39%
Sloga Čonoplja 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Vojvodina 1928 (draw refunded)
53%
Sloga Čonoplja (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vojvodina 1928 at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

Sloga Čonoplja away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vojvodina 1928 attack 0.81 + Sloga Čonoplja defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.45

Sloga Čonoplja attack 1.04 + Vojvodina 1928 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vojvodina 1928 scores more
40%
level
25%
Sloga Čonoplja scores more
35%

Vojvodina 1928 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vojvodina 1928 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Vojvodina 1928 1–1 Sloga Čonoplja

Vojvodina 1928 and Sloga Čonoplja drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on August 23, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Vojvodina 1928 in Perlez.