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Vojvodina 1928 vs Radnički Sombor — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Vojvodina 1928
Vojvodina 1928
FT
1 – 2
Radnički Sombor
Radnički Sombor
4/14/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 28Stadion Vojvodina 1928

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Vojvodina 192830%
×Draw26%
Radnički Sombor44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vojvodina 1928
1.14
Radnički Sombor
1.46

Radnički Sombor creates 28% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 49 away

creates per match

Vojvodina 1928
0.81
Radnički Sombor
1.29

allows per match

Vojvodina 1928
1.64
Radnički Sombor
1.47

finishing

Vojvodina 1928+0.00on par
Radnički Sombor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vojvodina 1928 ↓

Radnički Sombor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vojvodina 1928 or draw
56%
Vojvodina 1928 or Radnički Sombor
74%
Draw or Radnički Sombor
70%

Winning margin

Vojvodina 1928 wins by 2+
12%
Radnički Sombor wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Vojvodina 1928 1+ goals
68%
Vojvodina 1928 2+ goals
32%
Vojvodina 1928 3+ goals
11%
Radnički Sombor 1+ goals
77%
Radnički Sombor 2+ goals
43%
Radnički Sombor 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Vojvodina 1928 (draw refunded)
40%
Radnički Sombor (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vojvodina 1928 at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

Radnički Sombor away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vojvodina 1928 attack 0.81 + Radnički Sombor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.14

Radnički Sombor attack 1.29 + Vojvodina 1928 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vojvodina 1928 scores more
30%
level
26%
Radnički Sombor scores more
44%

Radnički Sombor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Radnički Sombor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Vojvodina 1928 1–2 Radnički Sombor

Radnički Sombor beat Vojvodina 1928 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Vojvodina 1928 in Perlez.