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Vojvodina 1928 vs OFK Vršac — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Vojvodina 1928
Vojvodina 1928
FT
0 – 2
OFK Vršac
OFK Vršac
11/15/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 17Stadion Vojvodina 1928

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Vojvodina 192826%
×Draw24%
OFK Vršac49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vojvodina 1928
1.14
OFK Vršac
1.65

OFK Vršac creates 45% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 43 away

creates per match

Vojvodina 1928
0.81
OFK Vršac
1.65

allows per match

Vojvodina 1928
1.64
OFK Vršac
1.47

finishing

Vojvodina 1928+0.00on par
OFK Vršac+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vojvodina 1928 ↓

OFK Vršac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Vojvodina 1928 or draw
51%
Vojvodina 1928 or OFK Vršac
76%
Draw or OFK Vršac
74%

Winning margin

Vojvodina 1928 wins by 2+
10%
OFK Vršac wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Vojvodina 1928 1+ goals
68%
Vojvodina 1928 2+ goals
32%
Vojvodina 1928 3+ goals
11%
OFK Vršac 1+ goals
81%
OFK Vršac 2+ goals
49%
OFK Vršac 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Vojvodina 1928 (draw refunded)
35%
OFK Vršac (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vojvodina 1928 at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

OFK Vršac away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.47 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vojvodina 1928 attack 0.81 + OFK Vršac defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.14

OFK Vršac attack 1.65 + Vojvodina 1928 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vojvodina 1928 scores more
26%
level
24%
OFK Vršac scores more
49%

OFK Vršac at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "OFK Vršac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vojvodina 1928 vs OFK Vršac

OFK Vršac beat Vojvodina 1928 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on November 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Vojvodina 1928 in Perlez.