Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vojvodina 1928 vs Mladost Novi Sad — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Vojvodina 1928
Vojvodina 1928
FT
1 – 4
Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
4/4/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 26Stadion Vojvodina 1928

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vojvodina 192818%
×Draw23%
Mladost Novi Sad58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vojvodina 1928
0.85
Mladost Novi Sad
1.74

Mladost Novi Sad creates 105% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 19 away

creates per match

Vojvodina 1928
0.81
Mladost Novi Sad
1.84

allows per match

Vojvodina 1928
1.64
Mladost Novi Sad
0.89

finishing

Vojvodina 1928+0.00on par
Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vojvodina 1928 ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vojvodina 1928 or draw
42%
Vojvodina 1928 or Mladost Novi Sad
77%
Draw or Mladost Novi Sad
82%

Winning margin

Vojvodina 1928 wins by 2+
6%
Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Vojvodina 1928 1+ goals
57%
Vojvodina 1928 2+ goals
21%
Vojvodina 1928 3+ goals
5%
Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
82%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
52%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Vojvodina 1928 (draw refunded)
24%
Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vojvodina 1928 at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 1.84, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vojvodina 1928 attack 0.81 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.85

Mladost Novi Sad attack 1.84 + Vojvodina 1928 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Vojvodina 1928 scores more
18%
level
23%
Mladost Novi Sad scores more
58%

Mladost Novi Sad at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vojvodina 1928 vs Mladost Novi Sad

Mladost Novi Sad beat Vojvodina 1928 4-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Vojvodina 1928 in Perlez.