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Vojvodina 1928 vs Dinamo Pančevo — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Vojvodina 1928
Vojvodina 1928
FT
0 – 4
Dinamo Pančevo
Dinamo Pančevo
3/28/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 24Stadion Vojvodina 1928

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Vojvodina 192833%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Pančevo41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vojvodina 1928
1.21
Dinamo Pančevo
1.38

Dinamo Pančevo creates 14% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 102 away

creates per match

Vojvodina 1928
0.81
Dinamo Pančevo
1.13

allows per match

Vojvodina 1928
1.64
Dinamo Pančevo
1.60

finishing

Vojvodina 1928+0.00on par
Dinamo Pančevo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vojvodina 1928 ↓

Dinamo Pančevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vojvodina 1928 or draw
59%
Vojvodina 1928 or Dinamo Pančevo
74%
Draw or Dinamo Pančevo
67%

Winning margin

Vojvodina 1928 wins by 2+
14%
Dinamo Pančevo wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Vojvodina 1928 1+ goals
70%
Vojvodina 1928 2+ goals
34%
Vojvodina 1928 3+ goals
12%
Dinamo Pančevo 1+ goals
75%
Dinamo Pančevo 2+ goals
40%
Dinamo Pančevo 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Vojvodina 1928 (draw refunded)
45%
Dinamo Pančevo (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vojvodina 1928 at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

Dinamo Pančevo away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vojvodina 1928 attack 0.81 + Dinamo Pančevo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.21

Dinamo Pančevo attack 1.13 + Vojvodina 1928 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vojvodina 1928 scores more
33%
level
26%
Dinamo Pančevo scores more
41%

Dinamo Pančevo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dinamo Pančevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Vojvodina 1928 0–4 Dinamo Pančevo

Dinamo Pančevo beat Vojvodina 1928 4-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on March 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Vojvodina 1928 in Perlez.