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Vojvodina 1928 vs Bratstvo Prigrevica — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Vojvodina 1928
Vojvodina 1928
FT
1 – 1
Bratstvo Prigrevica
Bratstvo Prigrevica
9/20/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 8Stadion Vojvodina 1928

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Vojvodina 192827%
×Draw28%
Bratstvo Prigrevica45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vojvodina 1928
0.96
Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.34

Bratstvo Prigrevica creates 40% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 42 away

creates per match

Vojvodina 1928
0.81
Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.05

allows per match

Vojvodina 1928
1.64
Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.10

finishing

Vojvodina 1928+0.00on par
Bratstvo Prigrevica+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vojvodina 1928 ↓

Bratstvo Prigrevica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Vojvodina 1928 or draw
55%
Vojvodina 1928 or Bratstvo Prigrevica
72%
Draw or Bratstvo Prigrevica
73%

Winning margin

Vojvodina 1928 wins by 2+
10%
Bratstvo Prigrevica wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Vojvodina 1928 1+ goals
62%
Vojvodina 1928 2+ goals
25%
Vojvodina 1928 3+ goals
7%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 1+ goals
74%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 2+ goals
39%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Vojvodina 1928 (draw refunded)
37%
Bratstvo Prigrevica (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vojvodina 1928 at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

Bratstvo Prigrevica away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.10 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vojvodina 1928 attack 0.81 + Bratstvo Prigrevica defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.96

Bratstvo Prigrevica attack 1.05 + Vojvodina 1928 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vojvodina 1928 scores more
27%
level
28%
Bratstvo Prigrevica scores more
45%

Bratstvo Prigrevica at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bratstvo Prigrevica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Vojvodina 1928 1–1 Bratstvo Prigrevica

Vojvodina 1928 and Bratstvo Prigrevica drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Vojvodina 1928 in Perlez.