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Voitsberg vs WSPG Wels — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Voitsberg
Voitsberg
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
WSPG Wels
WSPG Wels
6/7/2024Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 30Münzer Bioindustrie Sportpark Voitsberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Voitsberg65%
×Draw18%
WSPG Wels17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Voitsberg
2.40
WSPG Wels
1.13

Voitsberg creates 112% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Voitsberg
3.50
WSPG Wels
1.73

allows per match

Voitsberg
0.53
WSPG Wels
1.30

finishing

Voitsberg+0.00on par
WSPG Wels+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Voitsberg ↓

WSPG Wels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Voitsberg or draw
83%
Voitsberg or WSPG Wels
82%
Draw or WSPG Wels
35%

Winning margin

Voitsberg wins by 2+
43%
WSPG Wels wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Voitsberg 1+ goals
91%
Voitsberg 2+ goals
69%
Voitsberg 3+ goals
42%
WSPG Wels 1+ goals
68%
WSPG Wels 2+ goals
31%
WSPG Wels 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Voitsberg (draw refunded)
80%
WSPG Wels (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Voitsberg at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.53 · 30 matches

WSPG Wels away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Voitsberg attack 3.50 + WSPG Wels defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 2.40

WSPG Wels attack 1.73 + Voitsberg defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Voitsberg scores more
65%
level
18%
WSPG Wels scores more
17%

Voitsberg at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Voitsberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Voitsberg 2–0 WSPG Wels

Voitsberg beat WSPG Wels 2-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on June 7, 2024.

The match was played at Münzer Bioindustrie Sportpark Voitsberg in Voitsberg.