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Voitsberg vs Hitthaller St. Michael — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Voitsberg
Voitsberg
FT
6 – 0
Hitthaller St. Michael
Hitthaller St. Michael
10/23/2020Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 10Sparkassen-Arena Voitsberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Voitsberg77%
×Draw14%
Hitthaller St. Michael9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Voitsberg
2.87
Hitthaller St. Michael
0.90

Voitsberg creates 219% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 30 away

creates per match

Voitsberg
2.84
Hitthaller St. Michael
1.07

allows per match

Voitsberg
0.72
Hitthaller St. Michael
2.90

finishing

Voitsberg+0.00on par
Hitthaller St. Michael+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Voitsberg ↓

Hitthaller St. Michael →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Voitsberg or draw
91%
Voitsberg or Hitthaller St. Michael
86%
Draw or Hitthaller St. Michael
23%

Winning margin

Voitsberg wins by 2+
57%
Hitthaller St. Michael wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Voitsberg 1+ goals
94%
Voitsberg 2+ goals
77%
Voitsberg 3+ goals
53%
Hitthaller St. Michael 1+ goals
59%
Hitthaller St. Michael 2+ goals
23%
Hitthaller St. Michael 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Voitsberg (draw refunded)
89%
Hitthaller St. Michael (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Voitsberg at home — creates 2.84, concedes 0.72 · 43 matches

Hitthaller St. Michael away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Voitsberg attack 2.84 + Hitthaller St. Michael defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.87

Hitthaller St. Michael attack 1.07 + Voitsberg defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Voitsberg scores more
77%
level
14%
Hitthaller St. Michael scores more
9%

Voitsberg at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Voitsberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Voitsberg 6–0 Hitthaller St. Michael

Voitsberg beat Hitthaller St. Michael 6-0 in Landesliga - Steiermark on October 23, 2020.

The match was played at Sparkassen-Arena Voitsberg in Voitsberg.