Voitsberg 3–2 Gurten: Result & Stats

Voitsberg

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Gurten

5/31/2024

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 29Münzer Bioindustrie Sportpark Voitsberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Voitsberg66%

×Draw19%

Gurten16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VoitsbergExpected goals in this matchGurten

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

1.06

Voitsberg

2.34

Gurten

1.06

Voitsberg creates 121% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 106 away

3.50

creates per match

1.58

0.53

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Voitsberg

3.50

Gurten

1.58

allows per match

Voitsberg

0.53

Gurten

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Voitsberg+0.00on par

Gurten+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Voitsberg ↓

Gurten →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Voitsberg or draw

84%

Voitsberg or Gurten

81%

Draw or Gurten

34%

Winning margin

Voitsberg wins by 2+

43%

Gurten wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Voitsberg 1+ goals

90%

Voitsberg 2+ goals

67%

Voitsberg 3+ goals

41%

Gurten 1+ goals

65%

Gurten 2+ goals

29%

Gurten 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Voitsberg (draw refunded)

81%

Gurten (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Voitsberg at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.53 · 30 matches

Gurten away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.18 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Voitsberg attack 3.50 + Gurten defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 2.34

Gurten attack 1.58 + Voitsberg defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Voitsberg scores more

66%

level

19%

Gurten scores more

16%

Voitsberg at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Voitsberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff