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Voitsberg vs Bad Gleichenberg — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Voitsberg
Voitsberg
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Bad Gleichenberg
Bad Gleichenberg
8/25/2023Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 5Münzer Bioindustrie Sportpark Voitsberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Voitsberg71%
×Draw16%
Bad Gleichenberg13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Voitsberg
2.77
Bad Gleichenberg
1.14

Voitsberg creates 143% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 75 away

creates per match

Voitsberg
3.50
Bad Gleichenberg
1.75

allows per match

Voitsberg
0.53
Bad Gleichenberg
2.04

finishing

Voitsberg+0.00on par
Bad Gleichenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Voitsberg ↓

Bad Gleichenberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Voitsberg or draw
87%
Voitsberg or Bad Gleichenberg
84%
Draw or Bad Gleichenberg
29%

Winning margin

Voitsberg wins by 2+
50%
Bad Gleichenberg wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Voitsberg 1+ goals
94%
Voitsberg 2+ goals
76%
Voitsberg 3+ goals
51%
Bad Gleichenberg 1+ goals
68%
Bad Gleichenberg 2+ goals
32%
Bad Gleichenberg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Voitsberg (draw refunded)
84%
Bad Gleichenberg (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Voitsberg at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.53 · 30 matches

Bad Gleichenberg away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.04 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Voitsberg attack 3.50 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.77

Bad Gleichenberg attack 1.75 + Voitsberg defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Voitsberg scores more
71%
level
16%
Bad Gleichenberg scores more
13%

Voitsberg at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Voitsberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Voitsberg 4–1 Bad Gleichenberg

Voitsberg beat Bad Gleichenberg 4-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on August 25, 2023.

The match was played at Münzer Bioindustrie Sportpark Voitsberg in Voitsberg.