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Vodice vs Urania Baška Voda — Third NL - Jug 2019

Vodice
Vodice
FT
2 – 1
Urania Baška Voda
Urania Baška Voda
3/20/2021Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 18Stadion Račice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Vodice58%
×Draw22%
Urania Baška Voda20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vodice
1.98
Urania Baška Voda
1.08

Vodice creates 83% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 57 away

creates per match

Vodice
1.83
Urania Baška Voda
0.81

allows per match

Vodice
1.34
Urania Baška Voda
2.12

finishing

Vodice+0.00on par
Urania Baška Voda+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vodice ↓

Urania Baška Voda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Vodice or draw
80%
Vodice or Urania Baška Voda
78%
Draw or Urania Baška Voda
42%

Winning margin

Vodice wins by 2+
35%
Urania Baška Voda wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vodice 1+ goals
86%
Vodice 2+ goals
59%
Vodice 3+ goals
31%
Urania Baška Voda 1+ goals
66%
Urania Baška Voda 2+ goals
29%
Urania Baška Voda 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vodice (draw refunded)
74%
Urania Baška Voda (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vodice at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.34 · 102 matches

Urania Baška Voda away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.12 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vodice attack 1.83 + Urania Baška Voda defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.98

Urania Baška Voda attack 0.81 + Vodice defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Vodice scores more
58%
level
22%
Urania Baška Voda scores more
20%

Vodice at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Vodice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Vodice 2–1 Urania Baška Voda

Vodice beat Urania Baška Voda 2-1 in Third NL - Jug on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Račice in Vodice.