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Vodice vs Kamen Ivanbegovina — Third NL - Jug 2019

Vodice
Vodice
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kamen Ivanbegovina
Kamen Ivanbegovina
9/27/2025Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 6Stadion Račice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Vodice64%
×Draw19%
Kamen Ivanbegovina17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vodice
2.27
Kamen Ivanbegovina
1.07

Vodice creates 112% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

creates per match

Vodice
1.83
Kamen Ivanbegovina
0.80

allows per match

Vodice
1.34
Kamen Ivanbegovina
2.71

finishing

Vodice+0.00on par
Kamen Ivanbegovina+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vodice ↓

Kamen Ivanbegovina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Vodice or draw
83%
Vodice or Kamen Ivanbegovina
81%
Draw or Kamen Ivanbegovina
36%

Winning margin

Vodice wins by 2+
41%
Kamen Ivanbegovina wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Vodice 1+ goals
90%
Vodice 2+ goals
66%
Vodice 3+ goals
39%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 1+ goals
66%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 2+ goals
29%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vodice (draw refunded)
79%
Kamen Ivanbegovina (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vodice at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.34 · 102 matches

Kamen Ivanbegovina away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.71 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vodice attack 1.83 + Kamen Ivanbegovina defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.27

Kamen Ivanbegovina attack 0.80 + Vodice defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Vodice scores more
64%
level
19%
Kamen Ivanbegovina scores more
17%

Vodice at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Vodice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Vodice 2–0 Kamen Ivanbegovina

Vodice beat Kamen Ivanbegovina 2-0 in Third NL - Jug on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Račice in Vodice.