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Vodice vs GOŠK Dubrovnik — Third NL - Jug 2019

Vodice
Vodice
FT
1 – 3
GOŠK Dubrovnik
GOŠK Dubrovnik
5/4/2024Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 27Stadion Račice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Vodice54%
×Draw23%
GOŠK Dubrovnik23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vodice
1.81
GOŠK Dubrovnik
1.10

Vodice creates 65% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

creates per match

Vodice
1.83
GOŠK Dubrovnik
0.86

allows per match

Vodice
1.34
GOŠK Dubrovnik
1.79

finishing

Vodice+0.00on par
GOŠK Dubrovnik+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vodice ↓

GOŠK Dubrovnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Vodice or draw
77%
Vodice or GOŠK Dubrovnik
77%
Draw or GOŠK Dubrovnik
46%

Winning margin

Vodice wins by 2+
30%
GOŠK Dubrovnik wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vodice 1+ goals
84%
Vodice 2+ goals
54%
Vodice 3+ goals
27%
GOŠK Dubrovnik 1+ goals
67%
GOŠK Dubrovnik 2+ goals
30%
GOŠK Dubrovnik 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vodice (draw refunded)
70%
GOŠK Dubrovnik (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vodice at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.34 · 102 matches

GOŠK Dubrovnik away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.79 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vodice attack 1.83 + GOŠK Dubrovnik defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.81

GOŠK Dubrovnik attack 0.86 + Vodice defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vodice scores more
54%
level
23%
GOŠK Dubrovnik scores more
23%

Vodice at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vodice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Vodice 1–3 GOŠK Dubrovnik

GOŠK Dubrovnik beat Vodice 3-1 in Third NL - Jug on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Račice in Vodice.