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VOCEM U20 vs Tupã U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

VOCEM U20
VOCEM U20
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tupã U20
Tupã U20
G. Matos 83', 67'
L. Centamori 76'
P. G. Bueno da Silva 73'
E. Monlevad 20'
5/3/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Antônio Viana da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

VOCEM U2063%
×Draw18%
Tupã U2019%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VOCEM U20
2.60
Tupã U20
1.40

VOCEM U20 creates 86% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

VOCEM U20
1.40
Tupã U20
0.60

allows per match

VOCEM U20
2.20
Tupã U20
3.80

finishing

VOCEM U20+0.00on par
Tupã U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 76Under: 2476%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 70No: 3070%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VOCEM U20 ↓

Tupã U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

VOCEM U20 or draw
81%
VOCEM U20 or Tupã U20
82%
Draw or Tupã U20
37%

Winning margin

VOCEM U20 wins by 2+
42%
Tupã U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

VOCEM U20 1+ goals
92%
VOCEM U20 2+ goals
73%
VOCEM U20 3+ goals
47%
Tupã U20 1+ goals
75%
Tupã U20 2+ goals
41%
Tupã U20 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

VOCEM U20 (draw refunded)
76%
Tupã U20 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VOCEM U20 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Tupã U20 away — creates 0.60, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VOCEM U20 attack 1.40 + Tupã U20 defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 2.60

Tupã U20 attack 0.60 + VOCEM U20 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

VOCEM U20 scores more
63%
level
18%
Tupã U20 scores more
19%

VOCEM U20 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "VOCEM U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
E. Monlevad
67'
G. Matos
73'
P. G. Bueno da Silva
76'
L. Centamori
79'
T. Lima
83'
G. Matos
85'
F. Cardoso
85'
A. Alves da Silva
90'
P. G. Bueno da Silva
90+1'
J. Dias

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

VOCEM U20 5 – 0 Tupã U20

VOCEM U20 beat Tupã U20 5-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 3, 2024.

Goals: E. Monlevad (20'), G. Matos (67', 83'), P. G. Bueno da Silva (73'), L. Centamori (76').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antônio Viana da Silva in Assis, São Paulo.