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VOCEM U20 vs Novorizontino U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

VOCEM U20
VOCEM U20
FT
0 – 5
Novorizontino U20
Novorizontino U20
4/12/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Antônio Viana da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

VOCEM U2020%
×Draw20%
Novorizontino U2060%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VOCEM U20
1.16
Novorizontino U20
2.14

Novorizontino U20 creates 84% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 25 away

creates per match

VOCEM U20
1.40
Novorizontino U20
2.08

allows per match

VOCEM U20
2.20
Novorizontino U20
0.92

finishing

VOCEM U20+0.00on par
Novorizontino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VOCEM U20 ↓

Novorizontino U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

VOCEM U20 or draw
40%
VOCEM U20 or Novorizontino U20
80%
Draw or Novorizontino U20
80%

Winning margin

VOCEM U20 wins by 2+
8%
Novorizontino U20 wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

VOCEM U20 1+ goals
69%
VOCEM U20 2+ goals
32%
VOCEM U20 3+ goals
11%
Novorizontino U20 1+ goals
88%
Novorizontino U20 2+ goals
63%
Novorizontino U20 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

VOCEM U20 (draw refunded)
25%
Novorizontino U20 (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VOCEM U20 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Novorizontino U20 away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VOCEM U20 attack 1.40 + Novorizontino U20 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.16

Novorizontino U20 attack 2.08 + VOCEM U20 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

VOCEM U20 scores more
20%
level
20%
Novorizontino U20 scores more
60%

Novorizontino U20 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Novorizontino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

VOCEM U20 0 – 5 Novorizontino U20

Novorizontino U20 beat VOCEM U20 5-0 in Paulista - U20 on April 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antônio Viana da Silva in Assis, São Paulo.