Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

VOCEM U20 vs Gremio Prudente U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

VOCEM U20
VOCEM U20
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Gremio Prudente U20
Gremio Prudente U20
J. Amorim 76'
d. S. Wagner M. G. 71'
5/31/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Municipal Antônio Viana da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

VOCEM U2028%
×Draw23%
Gremio Prudente U2048%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VOCEM U20
1.32
Gremio Prudente U20
1.79

Gremio Prudente U20 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 21 away

creates per match

VOCEM U20
1.40
Gremio Prudente U20
1.38

allows per match

VOCEM U20
2.20
Gremio Prudente U20
1.24

finishing

VOCEM U20+0.00on par
Gremio Prudente U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VOCEM U20 ↓

Gremio Prudente U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

VOCEM U20 or draw
52%
VOCEM U20 or Gremio Prudente U20
77%
Draw or Gremio Prudente U20
72%

Winning margin

VOCEM U20 wins by 2+
12%
Gremio Prudente U20 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

VOCEM U20 1+ goals
73%
VOCEM U20 2+ goals
38%
VOCEM U20 3+ goals
15%
Gremio Prudente U20 1+ goals
83%
Gremio Prudente U20 2+ goals
53%
Gremio Prudente U20 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

VOCEM U20 (draw refunded)
37%
Gremio Prudente U20 (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VOCEM U20 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Gremio Prudente U20 away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VOCEM U20 attack 1.40 + Gremio Prudente U20 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.32

Gremio Prudente U20 attack 1.38 + VOCEM U20 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

VOCEM U20 scores more
28%
level
23%
Gremio Prudente U20 scores more
48%

Gremio Prudente U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gremio Prudente U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

71'
d. S. Wagner M. G.
76'
J. Amorim

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VOCEM U20 vs Gremio Prudente U20

Gremio Prudente U20 beat VOCEM U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 31, 2024.

Goals: d. S. Wagner M. G. (71'), J. Amorim (76').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antônio Viana da Silva in Assis, São Paulo.