VMA 1–3 Rosengård: Result & Stats

VMA

FT

1 – 3

Rosengård

8/20/2023

Division 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 17Arkelstorps IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

VMA17%

×Draw18%

Rosengård65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VMAExpected goals in this matchRosengård

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

2.46

VMA

1.18

Rosengård

2.46

Rosengård creates 108% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 40 away

1.08

creates per match

1.85

3.08

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

VMA

1.08

Rosengård

1.85

allows per match

VMA

3.08

Rosengård

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VMA+0.00on par

Rosengård+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VMA ↓

Rosengård →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

VMA or draw

35%

VMA or Rosengård

82%

Draw or Rosengård

83%

Winning margin

VMA wins by 2+

6%

Rosengård wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

VMA 1+ goals

69%

VMA 2+ goals

33%

VMA 3+ goals

12%

Rosengård 1+ goals

91%

Rosengård 2+ goals

70%

Rosengård 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

VMA (draw refunded)

21%

Rosengård (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VMA at home — creates 1.08, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

Rosengård away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.27 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VMA attack 1.08 + Rosengård defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.18

Rosengård attack 1.85 + VMA defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

VMA scores more

17%

level

18%

Rosengård scores more

65%

Rosengård at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Rosengård will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff