VMA 1–2 Hässleholms IF: Result & Stats

VMA

FT

1 – 2

Hässleholms IF

6/8/2023

Division 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 11Ädlavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

VMA15%

×Draw18%

Hässleholms IF67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VMAExpected goals in this matchHässleholms IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

2.45

VMA

1.09

Hässleholms IF

2.45

Hässleholms IF creates 125% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 72 away

1.08

creates per match

1.82

3.08

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

VMA

1.08

Hässleholms IF

1.82

allows per match

VMA

3.08

Hässleholms IF

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VMA+0.00on par

Hässleholms IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VMA ↓

Hässleholms IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

VMA or draw

33%

VMA or Hässleholms IF

82%

Draw or Hässleholms IF

85%

Winning margin

VMA wins by 2+

5%

Hässleholms IF wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

VMA 1+ goals

66%

VMA 2+ goals

30%

VMA 3+ goals

10%

Hässleholms IF 1+ goals

91%

Hässleholms IF 2+ goals

70%

Hässleholms IF 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

VMA (draw refunded)

19%

Hässleholms IF (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VMA at home — creates 1.08, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

Hässleholms IF away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.10 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VMA attack 1.08 + Hässleholms IF defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.09

Hässleholms IF attack 1.82 + VMA defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

VMA scores more

15%

level

18%

Hässleholms IF scores more

67%

Hässleholms IF at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Hässleholms IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff