Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

VMA vs Berga — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

VMA
VMA
FT
0 – 2
Berga
Berga
4/15/2023Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 3Ädlavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

VMA22%
×Draw20%
Berga58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VMA
1.35
Berga
2.27

Berga creates 68% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 73 away

creates per match

VMA
1.08
Berga
1.47

allows per match

VMA
3.08
Berga
1.62

finishing

VMA+0.00on par
Berga+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VMA ↓

Berga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

VMA or draw
42%
VMA or Berga
80%
Draw or Berga
78%

Winning margin

VMA wins by 2+
9%
Berga wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

VMA 1+ goals
74%
VMA 2+ goals
39%
VMA 3+ goals
15%
Berga 1+ goals
90%
Berga 2+ goals
66%
Berga 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

VMA (draw refunded)
28%
Berga (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VMA at home — creates 1.08, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

Berga away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.62 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VMA attack 1.08 + Berga defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.35

Berga attack 1.47 + VMA defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

VMA scores more
22%
level
20%
Berga scores more
58%

Berga at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Berga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VMA vs Berga

Berga beat VMA 2-0 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Ädlavallen in Villands Vånga.