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VMA vs Balkan — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

VMA
VMA
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Balkan
Balkan
9/23/2023Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 22Arkelstorps IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

VMA28%
×Draw21%
Balkan51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VMA
1.58
Balkan
2.19

Balkan creates 39% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 66 away

creates per match

VMA
1.08
Balkan
1.29

allows per match

VMA
3.08
Balkan
2.08

finishing

VMA+0.00on par
Balkan+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VMA ↓

Balkan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

VMA or draw
49%
VMA or Balkan
79%
Draw or Balkan
72%

Winning margin

VMA wins by 2+
13%
Balkan wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

VMA 1+ goals
79%
VMA 2+ goals
47%
VMA 3+ goals
21%
Balkan 1+ goals
89%
Balkan 2+ goals
64%
Balkan 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

VMA (draw refunded)
35%
Balkan (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VMA at home — creates 1.08, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

Balkan away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.08 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VMA attack 1.08 + Balkan defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.58

Balkan attack 1.29 + VMA defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

VMA scores more
28%
level
21%
Balkan scores more
51%

Balkan at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Balkan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Götaland: VMA 2–3 Balkan

Balkan beat VMA 3-2 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Arkelstorps IP in Arkelstorp.