Vllaznia Shkodër 2–1 Teuta Durrës: Result & Stats

Vllaznia Shkodër

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Teuta Durrës

2/10/2024

Superliga · Round 23Stadiumi Loro Boriçi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Vllaznia Shkodër44%

×Draw29%

Teuta Durrës27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vllaznia ShkodërExpected goals in this matchTeuta Durrës

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.93

Vllaznia Shkodër

1.27

Teuta Durrës

0.93

Vllaznia Shkodër creates 37% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 144 away

1.42

creates per match

0.93

0.92

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Vllaznia Shkodër

1.42

Teuta Durrës

0.93

allows per match

Vllaznia Shkodër

0.92

Teuta Durrës

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vllaznia Shkodër+0.00on par

Teuta Durrës+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vllaznia Shkodër ↓

Teuta Durrës →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Vllaznia Shkodër or draw

73%

Vllaznia Shkodër or Teuta Durrës

71%

Draw or Teuta Durrës

56%

Winning margin

Vllaznia Shkodër wins by 2+

20%

Teuta Durrës wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Vllaznia Shkodër 1+ goals

72%

Vllaznia Shkodër 2+ goals

36%

Vllaznia Shkodër 3+ goals

14%

Teuta Durrës 1+ goals

61%

Teuta Durrës 2+ goals

24%

Teuta Durrës 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Vllaznia Shkodër (draw refunded)

62%

Teuta Durrës (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vllaznia Shkodër at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.92 · 132 matches

Teuta Durrës away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.12 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vllaznia Shkodër attack 1.42 + Teuta Durrës defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Teuta Durrës attack 0.93 + Vllaznia Shkodër defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vllaznia Shkodër scores more

44%

level

29%

Teuta Durrës scores more

27%

Vllaznia Shkodër at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vllaznia Shkodër will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff