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Teuta Durrës vs Vllaznia Shkodër — Superliga 2018

Teuta Durrës
Teuta Durrës
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vllaznia Shkodër
Vllaznia Shkodër
9/21/2025SuperligaSuperliga · Round 4Stadiumi Niko Dovana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Teuta Durrës39%
×Draw31%
Vllaznia Shkodër31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teuta Durrës
1.07
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.92

Teuta Durrës creates 16% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 128 away

creates per match

Teuta Durrës
1.13
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.97

allows per match

Teuta Durrës
0.86
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.02

finishing

Teuta Durrës+0.00on par
Vllaznia Shkodër+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teuta Durrës ↓

Vllaznia Shkodër →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Teuta Durrës or draw
69%
Teuta Durrës or Vllaznia Shkodër
69%
Draw or Vllaznia Shkodër
61%

Winning margin

Teuta Durrës wins by 2+
15%
Vllaznia Shkodër wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Teuta Durrës 1+ goals
66%
Teuta Durrës 2+ goals
29%
Teuta Durrës 3+ goals
9%
Vllaznia Shkodër 1+ goals
60%
Vllaznia Shkodër 2+ goals
23%
Vllaznia Shkodër 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Teuta Durrës (draw refunded)
56%
Vllaznia Shkodër (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teuta Durrës at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.86 · 146 matches

Vllaznia Shkodër away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.02 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teuta Durrës attack 1.13 + Vllaznia Shkodër defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.07

Vllaznia Shkodër attack 0.97 + Teuta Durrës defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Teuta Durrës scores more
39%
level
31%
Vllaznia Shkodër scores more
31%

Teuta Durrës at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Teuta Durrës will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Teuta Durrës 1–1 Vllaznia Shkodër

Teuta Durrës and Vllaznia Shkodër drew 1-1 in Superliga on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Stadiumi Niko Dovana.