Vllaznia Shkodër 2–0 Skenderbeu Korce

Vllaznia Shkodër

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Skenderbeu Korce

K. Dodaj 20'

B. Balaj 14'

11/3/2024

Superliga · Round 12Stadiumi Loro Boriçi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Vllaznia Shkodër49%

×Draw27%

Skenderbeu Korce24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vllaznia ShkodërExpected goals in this matchSkenderbeu Korce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.91

Vllaznia Shkodër

1.41

Skenderbeu Korce

0.91

Vllaznia Shkodër creates 55% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 55 away

1.51

creates per match

0.85

0.96

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Vllaznia Shkodër

1.51

Skenderbeu Korce

0.85

allows per match

Vllaznia Shkodër

0.96

Skenderbeu Korce

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vllaznia Shkodër+0.00on par

Skenderbeu Korce+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vllaznia Shkodër ↓

Skenderbeu Korce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Vllaznia Shkodër or draw

76%

Vllaznia Shkodër or Skenderbeu Korce

73%

Draw or Skenderbeu Korce

51%

Winning margin

Vllaznia Shkodër wins by 2+

24%

Skenderbeu Korce wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vllaznia Shkodër 1+ goals

76%

Vllaznia Shkodër 2+ goals

41%

Vllaznia Shkodër 3+ goals

17%

Skenderbeu Korce 1+ goals

60%

Skenderbeu Korce 2+ goals

23%

Skenderbeu Korce 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Vllaznia Shkodër (draw refunded)

67%

Skenderbeu Korce (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vllaznia Shkodër at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.96 · 95 matches

Skenderbeu Korce away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.31 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vllaznia Shkodër attack 1.51 + Skenderbeu Korce defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.41

Skenderbeu Korce attack 0.85 + Vllaznia Shkodër defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vllaznia Shkodër scores more

49%

level

27%

Skenderbeu Korce scores more

24%

Vllaznia Shkodër at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vllaznia Shkodër will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

B. Balaj

17'

A. Krymi

20'

K. Dodaj

28'

H. Nerguti← K. Vangjeli

51'

A. Yago

57'

K. Qato

58'

E. Rashica

62'

E. Krasniqi← D. Janaqi

63'

F. Kamleu← Yuri Merlim

70'

R. Pecani← Marcos Ramos

78'

I. Gruda← K. Qato

84'

E. Gurishta

87'

A. Delaj← E. Mala

88'

E. Tafili← K. Dodaj

Vllaznia

Skenderbeu

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Dodaj

Manager: T. Brdarić

78'▲I. Gruda←▼K. Qato

87'▲A. Delaj←▼E. Mala

88'▲E. Tafili←▼K. Dodaj

Vllaznia Shkodër substitutes

GrudaDelajTafiliBrahimiJukajMaliqiZaganjoriSpahijaPusiÇoba

Manager: I. Gvozdenović

28'▲H. Nerguti←▼K. Vangjeli

62'▲E. Krasniqi←▼D. Janaqi

63'▲F. Kamleu←▼Yuri Merlim

70'▲R. Pecani←▼Marcos Ramos

Skenderbeu Korce substitutes

NergutiKrasniqiKamleuPecaniTareZenullariAkpamaRrokuGrezda