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Vllaznia Shkodër vs Skenderbeu Korce — Superliga 2018

Vllaznia Shkodër
Vllaznia Shkodër
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Skenderbeu Korce
Skenderbeu Korce
12/22/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 18Stadiumi Loro Boriçi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Vllaznia Shkodër47%
×Draw28%
Skenderbeu Korce25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vllaznia Shkodër
1.35
Skenderbeu Korce
0.91

Vllaznia Shkodër creates 48% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 109 away

creates per match

Vllaznia Shkodër
1.42
Skenderbeu Korce
0.89

allows per match

Vllaznia Shkodër
0.92
Skenderbeu Korce
1.29

finishing

Vllaznia Shkodër+0.00on par
Skenderbeu Korce+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vllaznia Shkodër ↓

Skenderbeu Korce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Vllaznia Shkodër or draw
75%
Vllaznia Shkodër or Skenderbeu Korce
72%
Draw or Skenderbeu Korce
53%

Winning margin

Vllaznia Shkodër wins by 2+
22%
Skenderbeu Korce wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vllaznia Shkodër 1+ goals
74%
Vllaznia Shkodër 2+ goals
39%
Vllaznia Shkodër 3+ goals
15%
Skenderbeu Korce 1+ goals
60%
Skenderbeu Korce 2+ goals
23%
Skenderbeu Korce 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Vllaznia Shkodër (draw refunded)
65%
Skenderbeu Korce (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vllaznia Shkodër at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.92 · 132 matches

Skenderbeu Korce away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.29 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vllaznia Shkodër attack 1.42 + Skenderbeu Korce defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.35

Skenderbeu Korce attack 0.89 + Vllaznia Shkodër defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vllaznia Shkodër scores more
47%
level
28%
Skenderbeu Korce scores more
25%

Vllaznia Shkodër at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vllaznia Shkodër will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vllaznia Shkodër vs Skenderbeu Korce

Vllaznia Shkodër beat Skenderbeu Korce 5-0 in Superliga on December 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Loro Boriçi in Shkodër.