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Vllaznia Shkodër vs Partizani — Superliga 2018

Vllaznia Shkodër
Vllaznia Shkodër
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Partizani
Partizani
9/13/2025SuperligaSuperliga · Round 3Loro Borici Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Vllaznia Shkodër40%
×Draw28%
Partizani32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vllaznia Shkodër
1.22
Partizani
1.05

Vllaznia Shkodër creates 16% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 146 away

creates per match

Vllaznia Shkodër
1.42
Partizani
1.19

allows per match

Vllaznia Shkodër
0.92
Partizani
1.02

finishing

Vllaznia Shkodër+0.00on par
Partizani+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vllaznia Shkodër ↓

Partizani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Vllaznia Shkodër or draw
68%
Vllaznia Shkodër or Partizani
72%
Draw or Partizani
60%

Winning margin

Vllaznia Shkodër wins by 2+
17%
Partizani wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vllaznia Shkodër 1+ goals
70%
Vllaznia Shkodër 2+ goals
34%
Vllaznia Shkodër 3+ goals
12%
Partizani 1+ goals
65%
Partizani 2+ goals
28%
Partizani 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vllaznia Shkodër (draw refunded)
56%
Partizani (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vllaznia Shkodër at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.92 · 132 matches

Partizani away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vllaznia Shkodër attack 1.42 + Partizani defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.22

Partizani attack 1.19 + Vllaznia Shkodër defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vllaznia Shkodër scores more
40%
level
28%
Partizani scores more
32%

Vllaznia Shkodër at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vllaznia Shkodër will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Vllaznia Shkodër 4–1 Partizani

Vllaznia Shkodër beat Partizani 4-1 in Superliga on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Loro Borici Stadium.