Vllaznia Shkodër 0–0 FK Kukesi: Result & Stats

Vllaznia Shkodër

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FK Kukesi

3/8/2021

Superliga · Round 23Stadiumi Loro Boriçi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Vllaznia Shkodër43%

×Draw27%

FK Kukesi29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vllaznia ShkodërExpected goals in this matchFK Kukesi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.07

Vllaznia Shkodër

1.36

FK Kukesi

1.07

Vllaznia Shkodër creates 27% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 108 away

1.42

creates per match

1.22

0.92

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Vllaznia Shkodër

1.42

FK Kukesi

1.22

allows per match

Vllaznia Shkodër

0.92

FK Kukesi

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vllaznia Shkodër+0.00on par

FK Kukesi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vllaznia Shkodër ↓

FK Kukesi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Vllaznia Shkodër or draw

71%

Vllaznia Shkodër or FK Kukesi

73%

Draw or FK Kukesi

57%

Winning margin

Vllaznia Shkodër wins by 2+

20%

FK Kukesi wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Vllaznia Shkodër 1+ goals

74%

Vllaznia Shkodër 2+ goals

39%

Vllaznia Shkodër 3+ goals

16%

FK Kukesi 1+ goals

66%

FK Kukesi 2+ goals

29%

FK Kukesi 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Vllaznia Shkodër (draw refunded)

60%

FK Kukesi (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vllaznia Shkodër at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.92 · 132 matches

FK Kukesi away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.30 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vllaznia Shkodër attack 1.42 + FK Kukesi defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.36

FK Kukesi attack 1.22 + Vllaznia Shkodër defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vllaznia Shkodër scores more

43%

level

27%

FK Kukesi scores more

29%

Vllaznia Shkodër at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vllaznia Shkodër will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff