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FK Kukesi vs Vllaznia Shkodër — Superliga 2018

FK Kukesi
FK Kukesi
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vllaznia Shkodër
Vllaznia Shkodër
4/16/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 29Kukës Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

FK Kukesi39%
×Draw30%
Vllaznia Shkodër31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Kukesi
1.10
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.96

FK Kukesi creates 15% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 128 away

creates per match

FK Kukesi
1.19
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.97

allows per match

FK Kukesi
0.95
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.02

finishing

FK Kukesi+0.00on par
Vllaznia Shkodër+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Kukesi ↓

Vllaznia Shkodër →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

FK Kukesi or draw
69%
FK Kukesi or Vllaznia Shkodër
70%
Draw or Vllaznia Shkodër
61%

Winning margin

FK Kukesi wins by 2+
16%
Vllaznia Shkodër wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FK Kukesi 1+ goals
67%
FK Kukesi 2+ goals
30%
FK Kukesi 3+ goals
10%
Vllaznia Shkodër 1+ goals
62%
Vllaznia Shkodër 2+ goals
25%
Vllaznia Shkodër 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FK Kukesi (draw refunded)
55%
Vllaznia Shkodër (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Kukesi at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.95 · 108 matches

Vllaznia Shkodër away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.02 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Kukesi attack 1.19 + Vllaznia Shkodër defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.10

Vllaznia Shkodër attack 0.97 + FK Kukesi defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FK Kukesi scores more
39%
level
30%
Vllaznia Shkodër scores more
31%

FK Kukesi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FK Kukesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: FK Kukesi 0–0 Vllaznia Shkodër

FK Kukesi and Vllaznia Shkodër drew 0-0 in Superliga on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Kukës Arena in Kukës.