Vllaznia Shkodër 1–1 Erzeni Shijak: Result & Stats

Vllaznia Shkodër

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Erzeni Shijak

3/29/2024

Superliga · Round 29Stadiumi Loro Boriçi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Vllaznia Shkodër49%

×Draw26%

Erzeni Shijak24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vllaznia ShkodërExpected goals in this matchErzeni Shijak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.96

Vllaznia Shkodër

1.49

Erzeni Shijak

0.96

Vllaznia Shkodër creates 55% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 36 away

1.42

creates per match

1.00

0.92

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Vllaznia Shkodër

1.42

Erzeni Shijak

1.00

allows per match

Vllaznia Shkodër

0.92

Erzeni Shijak

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vllaznia Shkodër+0.00on par

Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vllaznia Shkodër ↓

Erzeni Shijak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Vllaznia Shkodër or draw

76%

Vllaznia Shkodër or Erzeni Shijak

74%

Draw or Erzeni Shijak

51%

Winning margin

Vllaznia Shkodër wins by 2+

25%

Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Vllaznia Shkodër 1+ goals

77%

Vllaznia Shkodër 2+ goals

44%

Vllaznia Shkodër 3+ goals

19%

Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals

62%

Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals

25%

Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Vllaznia Shkodër (draw refunded)

67%

Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vllaznia Shkodër at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.92 · 132 matches

Erzeni Shijak away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vllaznia Shkodër attack 1.42 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.49

Erzeni Shijak attack 1.00 + Vllaznia Shkodër defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vllaznia Shkodër scores more

49%

level

26%

Erzeni Shijak scores more

24%

Vllaznia Shkodër at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vllaznia Shkodër will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff