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Vlasina vs Župa — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Vlasina
Vlasina
FT
1 – 0
Župa
Župa
11/22/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 18Stadion Rosulja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vlasina62%
×Draw20%
Župa18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vlasina
2.20
Župa
1.10

Vlasina creates 100% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 19 away

creates per match

Vlasina
1.81
Župa
1.26

allows per match

Vlasina
0.94
Župa
2.58

finishing

Vlasina+0.00on par
Župa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vlasina ↓

Župa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Vlasina or draw
82%
Vlasina or Župa
80%
Draw or Župa
38%

Winning margin

Vlasina wins by 2+
39%
Župa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vlasina 1+ goals
89%
Vlasina 2+ goals
64%
Vlasina 3+ goals
37%
Župa 1+ goals
67%
Župa 2+ goals
30%
Župa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vlasina (draw refunded)
77%
Župa (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vlasina at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.94 · 102 matches

Župa away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vlasina attack 1.81 + Župa defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.20

Župa attack 1.26 + Vlasina defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Vlasina scores more
62%
level
20%
Župa scores more
18%

Vlasina at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Vlasina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Vlasina 1–0 Župa

Vlasina beat Župa 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Rosulja in Vlasotince.