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Vlasina vs Radan — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Vlasina
Vlasina
FT
2 – 1
Radan
Radan
10/25/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 14Stadion Rosulja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Vlasina47%
×Draw24%
Radan29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vlasina
1.65
Radan
1.25

Vlasina creates 32% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 27 away

creates per match

Vlasina
1.81
Radan
1.56

allows per match

Vlasina
0.94
Radan
1.48

finishing

Vlasina+0.00on par
Radan+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vlasina ↓

Radan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Vlasina or draw
71%
Vlasina or Radan
76%
Draw or Radan
53%

Winning margin

Vlasina wins by 2+
24%
Radan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vlasina 1+ goals
81%
Vlasina 2+ goals
49%
Vlasina 3+ goals
23%
Radan 1+ goals
71%
Radan 2+ goals
36%
Radan 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Vlasina (draw refunded)
62%
Radan (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vlasina at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.94 · 102 matches

Radan away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.48 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vlasina attack 1.81 + Radan defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.65

Radan attack 1.56 + Vlasina defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vlasina scores more
47%
level
24%
Radan scores more
29%

Vlasina at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vlasina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Vlasina 2–1 Radan

Vlasina beat Radan 2-1 in Srpska Liga - East on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Rosulja in Vlasotince.