Vlasina 1–1 Pčinja Trgovište: Result & Stats

Vlasina

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Pčinja Trgovište

4/30/2023

Srpska Liga - East · East - 24Stadion Rosulja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Vlasina56%

×Draw23%

Pčinja Trgovište21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VlasinaExpected goals in this matchPčinja Trgovište

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.02

Vlasina

1.84

Pčinja Trgovište

1.02

Vlasina creates 80% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 63 away

1.81

creates per match

1.11

0.94

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Vlasina

1.81

Pčinja Trgovište

1.11

allows per match

Vlasina

0.94

Pčinja Trgovište

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vlasina+0.00on par

Pčinja Trgovište+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vlasina ↓

Pčinja Trgovište →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Vlasina or draw

79%

Vlasina or Pčinja Trgovište

77%

Draw or Pčinja Trgovište

44%

Winning margin

Vlasina wins by 2+

32%

Pčinja Trgovište wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Vlasina 1+ goals

84%

Vlasina 2+ goals

55%

Vlasina 3+ goals

28%

Pčinja Trgovište 1+ goals

64%

Pčinja Trgovište 2+ goals

27%

Pčinja Trgovište 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Vlasina (draw refunded)

73%

Pčinja Trgovište (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vlasina at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.94 · 102 matches

Pčinja Trgovište away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.87 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vlasina attack 1.81 + Pčinja Trgovište defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.84

Pčinja Trgovište attack 1.11 + Vlasina defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Vlasina scores more

56%

level

23%

Pčinja Trgovište scores more

21%

Vlasina at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Vlasina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff